On Tuesday, April 21, on France Inter, Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), stated that this is indeed the biggest crisis in history, following over a month of conflict in the Middle East marked by a sharp rise in energy and fuel prices. “If you combine this oil crisis, the gas crisis with Russia, it is already a massive crisis, but it is not just oil and gas, it is also fertilizers, petrochemicals, sulfur, all these products that will be in short supply, pushing inflation worldwide, especially in emerging and developing countries, which will slow growth,” explained Fatih Birol.
According to the director of the IEA, the energy market, “is tens of trillions of dollars at the mercy of a handful of people, about a hundred people who have guns, who monitor a strait about fifty kilometers wide, it’s absurd.” When the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, it will take “two years” before a “return to normal” in energy prices, as stated by the IEA director. Fatih Birol believes that “things will not recover quickly” and that “it will be very gradual” because “the energy market will be very volatile.” He fears “terrible consequences for the entire global economic landscape.”
Development countries will be the most affected, according to Fatih Birol, who is much more worried about Africa than Europe. This concern also applies to emerging countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, which will face real difficulties. Fatih Birol anticipates a slowdown in economic growth in these countries, job losses, and widespread unemployment, leading to a debt spiral.
Like many countries, France is facing a steep increase in fuel prices. “The French population may suffer because there will be higher prices at the pump, but if things continue, which will worsen, it is inflation in general that will worsen, and there will be negative effects on purchasing power,” highlighted Fatih Birol.
Even if this energy crisis weighs on the global economy for several years, it also represents an “opportunity to redraw the global energy map,” according to Fatih Birol. He believes that the “winners” will be renewables, nuclear power, and electric cars. “In addition, I believe there will be Asian countries that can make more use of coal, their own coal which will be cheaper,” added the IEA director.
