Welcome to our running updates on the special election on redistricting. This is where we’ll be posting updates during the day and then analyzing the returns after the polls close. Reminder: Polls open at 6 a.m., close at 7 p.m. If you’re looking for the maps or other information on the process, see our Voter Guide.
2:08 p.m.: Northern Virginia localities lag behind 2025 but hard to make comparisons Arlington County reports that 14% of its voters have cast ballots by 1:30 p.m. A year ago, the figure was 18%. Combined with a drop-off in early voting, that’s not good for the “yes” side. However, many rural counties don’t provide these regular updates so it’s hard to make comparisons. It’s like only seeing the score on one side of the scoreboard.
1:04 p.m.: Fairfax County lags further behind 2025 Virginia’s most populous locality, Fairfax County, is falling further behind its 2025 vote totals. The county reports that as of noon, 9.6% of the county’s voters had cast ballots today. Forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe says a year ago the figure was 13.6%, so that a lag of four percentage points. Earlier today, Fairfax was running two percentage points behind 2025.
11:55 a.m.: Republican vote is strong but maybe not strong enough On his livestream, forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate is looking at the morning voting trends: “I don’t think ‘no’ is having the turnout they need to win.” While turnout in Democratic areas is running behind 2025, he doesn’t see turnout in Republican areas running high enough yet.
10:52 a.m.: Northern Virginia vote lags The morning vote in Northern Virginia is running low, according to forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate. “This is going to be a Republican election day,” he says on his livestream. The question is whether the Republican base downstate will turn out? He cautions that “this is not a 2021 redux” when Glenn Youngkin led a Republican sweep of the statewide offices.
10:25 a.m.: Arlington County running slightly behind 2025 figures We have our first turnout report. Both forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate and podcast Sam Shaziri report that Arlington is lagging slightly behind 2025 turnout. At 9 a.m., Arlington has had 6% of its voters show up. At that point on election day 2025, Arlington had seen 8% show up. Nuttycombe posts that this is “not a good start for Yes” because Arlington’s early vote was already behind 2025 totals. Arlington’s early vote was down 15.4% from its early vote in 2025; see my column this morning for those details.
8:23 a.m.: Elected officials out working the polls Not surprisingly, elected officials on both sides of the question are out at the polls today. Del. Joe McNamara, R-Roanoke County, posted an early morning video from the Salem Civic Center. Virginians for Fair Elections, the main “yes” group, released a schedule headlined by Lt. Gov. Ghazala Hashmi, who will be at polls in Richmond. The group also listed 14 Democratic state legislators who will be at the polls in their respective districts from Virginia Beach to Loudoun County.
6 a.m.: Polls are now open Polls have opened across Virginia. They close at 7 p.m. If you have photos or other observations from your polling place, send ’em to me at dwayne@cardinalnews.org and let me know which precinct they’re from.
4 a.m.: Here’s some history While we wait for results, here’s some historical context.
– Virginia has never had a special election for a constitutional amendment, so we have no precedent for what the turnout will be. – Virginians haven’t voted down a proposed constitutional amendment since 2016 when they rejected an amendment to enshrine the state’s right-to-work law into the constitution. – The Department of Elections site shows 72 referendums on constitutional amendments going back to 1927. Of those, only nine were rejected. Most passed by wide margins. Of course, most were also very technical amendments that didn’t generate much controversy. – The most lopsided yes vote was in 2004, where 87% voted in favor of a constitutional amendment to create a longer line of succession to the governorship in the event the state leadership should be wiped out during an attack. This was one of several actions the state took after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. – The closest vote on a constitutional amendment was in 1954, when voters narrowly rejected a move to allow school boards to borrow certain monies without a local referendum. The vote was 157,808 no, 156,728 yes, a margin of 1,080. Percentage-wise, the no side had 50.2% of the vote. The next closest was in 1960, when 50.3% voted no on an amendment that would have allowed certain elected officials to serve in two or more localities. If there are any historians out there, I’d love to know more about what that was about. – Among other interesting amendments: In 1928, voters narrowly approved three amendments that led to the superintendent of instruction, the commissioner of agriculture and the state treasurer being appointed, not elected as they had been. We could have had more elections! In 1964, voters rejected an amendment to allow write-in votes in primaries. If these tidbits sound familiar to you, it’s likely because you read them in our weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital. Want more politics and analysis? Sign up for West of the Capital, or any of our other newsletters.
