The Paris Stock Exchange and other European markets are regaining some of the lost ground from the previous day, showing a certain resilience as the 15-day ceasefire between Washington and Tehran is set to end on Wednesday evening.
Shortly before noon, the CAC 40 is up 0.2% to 8,350 points, while the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.5%, encouraged by the relative resilience of American indices on Monday (Nasdaq 100 closing -0.3% for example).
Uncertainty still reigns over the war…
However, uncertainty still remains about a possible resumption of talks between the United States and Iran, in Pakistan, as the 15-day ceasefire between the two countries is set to end on Wednesday evening.
An American delegation led by J. D. Vance is expected in Islamabad, but Tehran has stated that it does not want to “negotiate under threat” and has threatened to “play new cards on the battlefield” if the war were to resume.
Uncertainty about the Middle East and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz is naturally reflected in oil prices: Brent is up about 1% to $95, while Texan WTI is similarly up to $87.
“In the future, oil markets are expected to remain very sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East,” warns Abdelaziz Albogdady, market research and fintech strategy manager at FXEM.
“Persistent tensions could continue to drive prices up, while a credible de-escalation or the re-establishment of stable maritime transport conditions could trigger a new wave of massive sales,” he continues.
…and dampens morale in light of the ZEW index
Illustrating the effects of the geopolitical context on market sentiment, the ZEW index has significantly plunged into negative territory this month, dropping to -17.2 after -0.5 in March, when economists had expected a decline of only around -5.
This indicator of German investors’ confidence in their country’s economic prospects has fallen back below its low point of -14 in April 2025. To recall, it was still at 58.3 in February.
“The economic consequences of the war in Iran for the German economy go well beyond a simple price increase,” explains Achim Wambach, president of the ZEW institute.
According to the economist, German companies “are concerned about long-term energy shortages, which are hindering investments and mitigating the effects of government stimulus measures.”
The assessment of Germany’s current economic situation has also deteriorated for the current month, with the corresponding indicator reaching -73.7, 10.8 points lower than in March.
Thales neglected after its activity update
In the news of values in Paris, Thales drops by 4.4% and stands as the SBF 120’s red lantern, with investors penalizing weak results in Cyber and the absence of an increase in forecasts, on the occasion of its activity update.
However, the electronics group had a dynamic start to the year, driven by defense, with a significant increase in orders and organic growth close to 10% of revenue.
Another declining value, Safran is down 2.4%, as the aerospace equipment manufacturer lost support from Jefferies, which downgraded its recommendation from “buy” to “hold” and reduced its price target from 350 EUR to 310 EUR.
Elsewhere in Europe, AB Foods drops 3.5% in London after announcing its plan to split Primark, its low-cost clothing chain, in a context marked by semi-annual results below expectations and deteriorated sugar activities.
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