Tensions Rise in the Strait of Hormuz

The tension in the Strait of Hormuz escalated on Tuesday. The American army announced that it had destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying ships near the maritime route, fearing that Iran is preparing to deploy mines, as reported by Axios.

Such deployment would pose an extreme threat to commercial navigation in the region and would prevent any oil shipments through the strait, which is normally the route for a fifth of the world’s oil, the site notes.

The American operation followed a strongly threatening message from Donald Trump, posted on his Truth Social network in the early afternoon:

“If Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz – and we have not received any information to that effect – we demand their IMMEDIATE removal!”

“If, for whatever reason, mines have been laid and are not removed immediately, the military consequences for Iran will be unprecedented,” added the American president.

“Peace Negotiations” or “Global Chaos”

However, according to CNN, which obtained information from two sources close to American intelligence services, Iran has already “begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz,” now controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in conjunction with the traditional Iranian navy.

“The mining is currently limited, with only a few dozen mines having been laid in recent days,” these sources ensure. But Iran “retains between 80 and 90% of its fleet of small boats and mine-layers, which would enable it to lay hundreds of mines in the strait,” they add.

CBS News specifies that these “small boats” are “capable of carrying two to three mines each.” And although the number of mines held by the Islamic Republic is not public knowledge, “estimates range from 2,000 to 6,000, with most being produced by Iran, China, or Russia.”

As the closure of the strait panics markets and dramatically impacts oil prices, its control is “Iran’s last major asset,” with “the conventional army being largely obsolete and unable to counter American and Israeli airstrikes,” according to Bloomberg.

“The mining of the Strait of Hormuz, the use of anti-ship missiles against oil tankers, or the destruction of Gulf oil facilities could lead to peace negotiations – or global chaos, with energy shortages and rampant inflation,” adds the economic media outlet.

America’s Prime Targets

This latter scenario is the nightmare of the international community, and particularly of Donald Trump, who anxiously watches the gasoline price rise at the pump – an extremely sensitive issue for American consumers.

Therefore, even before targeting Tehran’s mine-laying ships, the White House occupant had “promised U.S. assistance for disrupted global maritime transport operations,” as recalled by Al-Jazeera.

In a message posted on his Truth Social network on March 3, he asserted: “If necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.” And he added: “Whatever happens, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW OF ENERGY AROUND THE WORLD.”

“However, his administration’s effectiveness in protecting ships crossing the strait remains uncertain,” notes the Qatari channel. The fragility of Washington on the subject was evident on Tuesday when Energy Secretary Chris Wright was forced to retract a post on X claiming that the U.S. Navy had “successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Asked about this, Ms. Leavitt [Karoline Leavitt, White House spokesperson] stated that the navy had not escorted any tankers in the strait,” reports the BBC, while the American army confirmed that it was not yet ready to provide such protection to ships.

For a simple reason, highlights The Economist: “The escort of tanker convoys by warships could offer American prime targets to Iran.”

“Historic” Oil Reserves Blockade

Iran does not hide this fact. Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, quoted by The Hill, warned on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz would be “either a strait of peace and prosperity for all,” or a “strait of defeat and suffering” for the “warriors” from the U.S. and Israel.

In this highly volatile context, and in an attempt to permanently lower oil prices, “the International Energy Agency [IEA] has proposed the largest oil reserves blockade in its history,” reports The Wall Street Journal.

“This blockade would exceed the 182 million barrels of oil released by IEA member countries in two phases in 2022, at the time when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine,” specifies the economic newspaper. The proposal was presented on Tuesday during an emergency meeting of energy officials from the 32 IEA member countries.

French President Emmanuel Macron convened a virtual meeting on Wednesday of G7 heads of state and government on “the economic consequences” of the war in Iran, notably concerning the “energy situation.”