I dont understand why: these seven days of silence from the Chinese army off the coast of Taiwan that are alarming experts

From February 27 to March 5, no Chinese planes have entered Taiwanese airspace or crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait. This marks the longest “pause” since 2022, when Taipei started releasing daily data on incursions. The calm has experts more concerned than the usual intimidation.

Drew Thompson, former senior Pentagon official for China-Taiwan relations, is puzzled: “The Chinese military has stopped flying around Taiwan … and I don’t understand why.” The expert presents hypotheses to try to understand the situation better. One of them is the weather. When Chinese military flights decrease, the reason is often simple: the weather. The Taiwan Strait is a challenging area for military operations. In winter, the winds funnel through and the waves rise, making conditions dangerous for aircraft and ships.

In contrast, spring brings calmer seas. It’s the ideal season for amphibious operations, necessary in case of a Taiwan invasion by the People’s Liberation Army. However, last February, the weather was decent. No typhoons or major storms. In other words, the weather doesn’t explain the silence.

A Large-scale Military Operation in the Works?

Another concerning element is the military exercise pause following new purges in the top ranks of the Chinese military. Two important officers were removed and put under investigation: Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, chief of the Joint Staff Department. For over a decade, Xi Jinping has regularly conducted anti-corruption campaigns in the military, but these had not previously slowed operations around Taiwan. Therefore, it’s unlikely to explain the pause.

In the preparation of a military campaign, armies might slow down their activities to save resources, accelerate maintenance, and prepare aircraft and ships for a more intense phase. If this were the case, other signs like full ports and massive troop movements toward the coast should be visible. However, at this point, nothing of the sort is evident.

Xi Jinping Wants His “Venezuela Moment”

Thompson also mentions a more radical scenario: a targeted strike against Taiwanese leaders. The idea is to neutralize President Lai Ching-te, his vice president, and prime minister in a few hours. This operation is inspired by the American raid against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, which intrigued Chinese nationalists online, with some suggesting a similar approach to Taiwan. Chinese intelligence services allegedly recruited agents from Taiwan to gather leaders’ schedules, crucial information for such an operation.

Still, the former Pentagon official Drew Thompson remains skeptical: “The People’s Liberation Army has never conducted such complex operations. The risk of failure would be huge, and a military failure could become a political disaster for Xi Jinping.” Many Taiwanese officials, including lawmaker Chen Kuan-ting, echo this sentiment.

Nevertheless, preparations for an operation have intensified in recent months.

China Allegedly Seeking Help from Russia

Russia is reportedly sharing lessons learned in Ukraine with China, as revealed by activist group Black Moon in September. Contracts and annexes show that the slopes on Taiwan’s shore limit the option of a sea attack. The preferred solution is capturing airfields to facilitate troop inflow by air. Russian military personnel are training Chinese special forces to discreetly infiltrate islands with parachutes capable of carrying heavy loads.

For an assault, China could extend tanks in golf fields or near Taiwanese ports, similar to what Russian parachutists did in Ukraine to seize Hostomel airport.

Could it Simply Be a Political Signal of De-escalation?

At the end of February, Taiwanese President Lai used the term “mainland China” in a speech to businessmen. This formula is fundamental for Beijing, implying the concept of a single China. Beijing might have reduced military pressure temporarily to compensate for this symbolic gesture.

However, this hypothesis doesn’t align with the timeline. The military pause began before this speech, and officials in Taipei find it unlikely that Beijing would make such a “gift” to the new president, even for a few days. Other experts suggest these statements from Taiwan could be a gesture of de-escalation before Donald Trump’s official visit to China from March 31 to April 2.

According to Drew Thompson, the issue isn’t so much the military pause itself but the lack of clear explanations. Beijing might be deliberately sowing doubt about its true intentions, especially as global attention focuses on the regionalized and expanding war in Iran.