MADISON, Wis. (WMTV) -Severe Weather Awareness Week continues with a look at the colorful severe weather maps seen every spring and summer: the convective outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center. These outlooks show where severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, damaging winds, or large hail are possible anywhere from today all the way out to eight days.
Understanding the colors The colors green, yellow, orange, and red do not rank how bad the storm will be. They show how likely severe weather is within 25 miles of a point. A “Slight Risk” doesn’t mean “slight impact.” It means scattered severe storms are possible. Many people misunderstand the categories. Some even think “Enhanced” is worse than “Moderate.” It’s not. Moderate is a higher risk.
New for 2026 The Storm Prediction Center added something called Conditional Intensity Groups, or CIGs. These tell forecasters how strong storms could become if everything lines up. A day that’s only a Slight Risk can still carry the potential for significant tornadoes or damaging winds.
How forecasts evolve Days 4-8: Broad outlooks showing general areas Days 1-3: More detailed predictions Day 1: Updated multiple times with specific tornado, wind, and hail threats
What it means Convective outlooks are an early warning system. They’re the first signal that the atmosphere is setting the stage for severe weather. Local forecasts, watches, and warnings provide the full picture. Don’t ignore the lower risk categories. Some of the most impactful severe weather days have come from what started as a “Slight Risk.”
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