The United States to implement a naval blockade of the strait…

President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced on Sunday that the American navy would block the Strait of Hormuz, following the failure of talks between the two camps in Islamabad. While this strategy could be an attempt to overturn control of the maritime corridor, it raises several questions about the American plan in the Middle East, according to experts.

“I don’t really understand the strategic logic [of this announcement],” said Julien Tourreille, a researcher at the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair. “I don’t see how blocking maritime traffic [by the American navy] would alleviate the negative effects of the conflict on the global economy and even on the American economy.”

Tourreille still refers to it as a “symbolic signal” from the American president, who would be trying to overturn control of the Strait of Hormuz, currently in the hands of Iran.

“From now on, the American navy, the best in the world, will begin the process of blocking all ships attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz,” the American president wrote in his first reaction to the announcement following the failure of negotiations, without providing any details on the modalities of such an operation.

Later on Sunday, the American military command for the Middle East (CENTCOM) announced that the American army would start its blockade of Iranian ports from Monday at 10 a.m. Montreal time in the absence of an agreement to end the conflict in the Middle East.

“This blockade will be applied impartially against ships of all nationalities entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas, including Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Oman Gulf,” clarified CENTCOM in a statement on X.

This announcement comes after direct negotiations between American representatives, including Vice President J.D. Vance, and Iranian representatives on Saturday in Pakistan, the mediator in the negotiations. After over 20 hours of talks, J.D. Vance returned to the United States without an agreement.

Main Lever of Iran

“[Donald Trump] has understood that the most effective lever in the Iranian strategy is really their grip on the Strait of Hormuz,” explains Sami Aoun, director of the Observatory on the Middle East and North Africa at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair. The blockade of the strait by Iran since the beginning of the war “disrupts” the plans of the American president on the Iranian concessions he would like to have, particularly regarding nuclear issues.

Thus, by announcing this American blockade, Trump tries to “deprive Iran of a card to play […] which is in their favor” according to the expert.

Tourreille agrees, saying, “This may force [the Iranians] to return to the negotiating table, because they themselves will not be able to transit their ships,” specifying that they no longer export much oil.

The expert admits that he still has “a hard time understanding and evaluating to what extent this fits into a negotiation strategy.”

American Blockade

Donald Trump also indicated that the navy would intercept all ships that had paid “a toll to Iran,” which would “weaken the measure of illegal taxation imposed by the Iranian regime,” according to Sami Aoun. Washington would thus position itself in favor of respecting international law, according to the expert, who mentions an attempt to isolate Iran internationally.

“Other countries” will participate in the American blockade according to Trump, who did not specify which. Later on Fox News, he mentioned that the United Kingdom “and a few other countries” would send mine-clearing ships to the strait, information not immediately confirmed by the UK. Later in the week, the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, reiterated that his country was ready to send reconnaissance drones and mine clearing ships to reopen the strait.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards reacted by threatening to trap their enemies in a “deadly vortex,” claiming to have “completely under control” the traffic in the strait.

Parliament President Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that Iran “will not yield to any threat.” “Let them test us again so that we can give them an even better lesson,” he added.

Maritime Traffic

Since the start of the war, only a few ships have managed to cross the strait, compared to an average of 120 ships per day before the Israeli-American strikes. After the ceasefire announcement on Tuesday evening and an opening of the strait, according to Iran, 19 ships were able to cross in three days, according to a BBC count. “Will the American navy prevent navigation for who in the end?” asks Tourreille.

For Aoun, Donald Trump would also be trying to increase the “impacts [of the war] on powers that could pressure Iran, especially China,” which benefits from over 80% of Iranian oil exports. The expert also mentions the discreet role Beijing played in the Middle East truce behind the scenes from Pakistan.

“We know, for example, that there were Chinese and Pakistani ships that had been able to transit through the strait,” says Julien Tourreille. “Will the American navy take the risk of intercepting, for example, an oil tanker going to China?” the researcher asks, citing one of the challenges to anticipate.

To hope for a return of the Iranians to the negotiating table, it will be necessary for the Americans to negotiate in “good faith,” according to Tourreille. “We have seen it notably on the American side, when we negotiate, we are still ready to use armed force,” he notes.

With Agence France-Presse