As the American legislative elections approach in November, Democrats are becoming increasingly optimistic, encouraged by a series of victories that suggest the rejection of President Donald Trump is spreading even to the traditional Republican strongholds.
“It seems that a blue wave (the color of the Democratic Party, editor’s note) is not only possible but probable. Democrats continue to exceed expectations and increase their lead,” said Andrew Koneschusky, a political analyst who has worked for the Democrats in the Senate.
If this trend continues, Democrats could hope to flip 40 or more Republican seats out of the 435 in play in the House of Representatives, he added.
Democrat progress has been evident this week, notably in Georgia (south).
During the election to fill the seat of former Trump-backed Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Democratic candidate lost but reduced the gap by nearly 17 points in this very conservative district compared to 2024.
And in Wisconsin, a Democrat won the municipality of Waukesha, a Republican stronghold.
These partial elections, outside of major electoral periods, are not reliable indicators, warn analysts. But the extent and regularity of these poor results are causing concern among Republicans.
– “Polarized” –
Democrats have on average improved their score by 13 points in partial elections since the 2024 elections.
At the state level, they have won dozens of seats held by Republicans while Donald Trump’s party has not managed to flip any.
Among the arguments presented by Democrats: Donald Trump has imposed a very unpopular conflict in the Middle East on the country, exposing Republicans to popular discontent. Particularly with the rising prices at the pump.
An anti-war effect that had already led Americans to vote overwhelmingly for the opposition in 2006, after the Republican-led war in Iraq by George W. Bush.
This time, the extent of the Democratic victory could be more measured.
“There will be a blue wave, but it will not be powerful enough to ride on,” said political analyst Donald Nieman, predicting a Democratic majority in the House by 10 seats after November.
“American politics remains polarized, most voters have already chosen their side,” he explained.
He also estimates that only 60 seats actually have a doubt about the outcome of the vote.
In the Senate, overturning the Republican majority is likely to be more complicated due to the composition of the seats to be filled, but such a performance no longer seems out of reach on the left.
– “Optimistic” –
For Donald Trump, losing the majority in Congress could complicate the end of his second term.
Democrats could then put a halt to much of his national and international program, particularly by limiting his powers in terms of military intervention abroad.
They could also pave the way for parliamentary inquiries into the Trump administration.
But for experts, an anti-Trump sentiment does not necessarily mean widespread support for Democratic candidates. The Republican Party continues to receive large donations, for example during fundraising.
For consultant Caroline Welles, who works for Democratic candidates, these recent good scores are a “reason to be optimistic.”
“However, it should be noted that the mid-term elections will take place in more than six months,” she added, “and the political landscape could have completely changed by then.”
Aaron Cutler, who worked for Republicans in the House of Representatives and is now a lobbyist, even suggested that the right could still win the mid-term elections.
According to him, there is currently a lack of unified message among Democrats, aside from the rejection of Republicans, and the opposition should instead try to present “a vision to Americans.”
Published on April 12 at 09:53, AFP
