Negotiations between Tehran and Washington finally began in Pakistan on Saturday, despite persistent disagreements between the two parties on various aspects of the ceasefire. There were uncertainties regarding Iran’s participation, but according to a political analyst, China and Russia played a crucial role in bringing Tehran to the negotiating table.
The holding of these discussions, as expected, is not so much explained by the success of the American ultimatum, but by the influence of two absent but allied actors of Iran in the conflict, noted political analyst Georges Mercier.
“It may be a sign that China and Russia have made it known [to the Iranians] that they must come to the negotiating table. Why? Because since the beginning of the conflict, Russia has benefited by having higher oil prices for its exports, and China has benefited because it will reduce the stature of the United States on the world stage,” he explained in an interview with LCN on Saturday.
The end of the conflict would also be advantageous for China, a major exporting power, added Mr. Mercier.
“The conflict is not advantageous for both parties, but neither Washington nor Tehran would really have an interest in restarting hostilities,” according to Georges Mercier.
“The price at the pump in the United States has increased significantly. War is not more popular today than it was in the past. It is not certain that Trump has political support at home to restart hostilities, and it is not at all clear that the Iranians are interested in starting it,” he mentioned.
On the Iranian side, the conflict has already caused significant economic damage, and the situation remains concerning.
“The Iranians have still suffered between 300 and 1000 billion dollars in damages. The Iranian economy is in a very bad state, they need a lifting of sanctions, inflation is said to have reached 50%. So, from both sides, there is an objective interest in at least freezing hostilities to allow a return to the status quo,” he concluded.
