While the latest polls indicate Viktor Orbán’s potential loss just days before the election, where he is fighting for his political survival in Hungary after sixteen years in power, he represents a model of hard-right politics in Central Europe. Serving as an inspiration for many far-right parties in neighboring countries, the Hungarian regime is seen as a model to follow. Jacques Rupnik, an expert in Eastern Europe, analyzes Orbán’s “illiberal” character.
La Dépêche du Midi: How can we characterize Viktor Orbán’s regime?
Jaques Rupnik: He himself has adopted the term “illiberal democracy.” This suggests a democracy that is not liberal, with elections existing but without the rule of law or separation of powers. Orbán has used this concept to argue that a democracy does not need to be liberal. He believes that once elected, he does not have to submit to checks and balances. He has therefore altered the composition of the Constitutional Council, filled it with close allies, and put the media under control, notably through a public broadcasting council. While institutions exist, the opposition has no say. Over sixteen years, Orbán has strengthened his power by enhancing the executive branch.
Can we classify this regime as far-right?
The term is often broadly used. In Hungary, there was a genuine far-right party, Jobbik. With the migration crisis, Orbán constructed a fence at the border and developed a discourse on protecting the nation and civilization. He attracted Jobbik’s electorate, leading to its near disappearance.
Is Hungary influencing its neighbors in Central Europe and the Balkans ideologically?
Certainly. Orbán’s regime has become a model for several neighboring countries. He founded a group of European Patriots, including Slovakia’s Robert Fico, the Czech Republic’s Andrej Babiš, and Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić. He also maintains close ties with radical right-wing populist parties, like Herbert Kickl’s in Austria. His former Polish ally Jarosław Kaczyński distanced himself due to the conflict in Ukraine, but they share a common rejection of political and societal liberalism in favor of family, nation, and Christianity.
Is Orbán aligning himself with Trumpism?
Yes, undoubtedly. Since 2016, he hailed Donald Trump’s victory as the end of liberal democracy. Trump later singled him out as the only foreign leader he supported. Orbán used this period to enhance his international standing, closely associating with Steve Bannon, who declared, “Orbán was Trump before Trump.” However, this strategy has its limits, as Orbán presents himself as a candidate for peace yet received support from US Vice President J.D. Vance as America initiated the conflict in the Middle East.
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Does the Soviet past explain Orbán’s popularity?
No, before 1989, Hungary was the most reform-minded country in the socialist bloc. Orbán belonged to a student movement advocating democracy and civil society. Therefore, it is not the communist past but the historical weaknesses of democratic traditions in Central Europe dating back to the interwar period that explain his popularity.
Does the weight of the far-right in Hungary and neighboring countries influence European debates?
Yes, Orbán seeks to unite the national-conservative and populist current. He suggests that the future of the European right depends on Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen. Even if he loses, this trend will not disappear: the rise of far-right movements is a significant trend in Europe.
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If Orbán loses the election, what message does it send to Brussels and its allies?
It would demonstrate that change is possible. Hungary is not Russia under Putin: there are no political prisoners. Alternation is crucial for democracy and combating corruption. However, dismantling Orbán’s system after sixteen years of entwining power, state, and economy will be challenging.
Jacques Rupnik is a research director emeritus at Sciences Po Paris. Having graduated in political science from Sciences Po in 1972 and Soviet studies from Harvard in 1974, he advised the European Commission from 2007 to 2013 and was a counselor to Czech President Václav Havel from 1990 to 1992. He teaches at Sciences Po and various universities abroad, providing expertise on Central Europe and the Balkans in numerous research institutions.
