Speaking at the annual spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C. on April 9, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva emphasized that even in the most optimistic scenario, it is unlikely that the world will return to its pre-conflict state. Rising energy costs, damaged infrastructure, disrupted supply chains, and decreased market confidence will result in lower-than-expected growth.
The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which erupted in late February, plunged the Middle East into violence, disrupted global supply chains, and caused oil prices to soar after Iran nearly blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime passageway for global energy transport. The IMF anticipates a significant increase in emergency financial aid needs for affected countries, initially estimated at between $20 and $50 billion. Moreover, the organization may need to provide up to $50 billion in aid to vulnerable economies, as the crisis in supply chains and transportation is expected to push at least 45 million people into food insecurity.
The IMF also anticipates a global inflation revision upwards due to the impact of energy price shocks and disruptions in international trade, leading to an inevitable increase in food prices. The World Bank estimates that the Middle East is experiencing severe and immediate economic losses. Excluding Iran, regional economic growth is expected to reach only 1.8% this year, a steep decline of 2.4 percentage points from pre-conflict levels.
Furthermore, the IMF has also warned about the consequences of an asymmetrical crisis, where energy-importing low-income countries are more severely affected than other economies. Countries at the end of the supply chain, such as Pacific island nations, face serious fuel shortages. In this context, the IMF has urged countries to coordinate their policies to mitigate the conflict’s impact, avoiding unilateral measures such as export controls or price controls that could worsen the situation. It has also advised central banks to be prepared to raise interest rates if inflation risks becoming uncontrollable, even if it could further slow growth.
According to IMF reports, production in war-torn countries could drop by 3% in the first year and continue to decline in the following years. Low-income countries are more exposed to food insecurity and require increased international support amid reduced global aid.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/imf-can-nhac-ha-du-bao-tang-truong-toan-cau-20260410095128930.htm
