Demographic Turning Point in the United States: Why Americans Are Having Fewer Children?

In the United States, a discreet yet significant turning point is taking place. In 2025, the fertility rate in Uncle Sam’s country has reached a historically low level. The number of births remains stable, around 3.6 million, but hides a deeper reality: American women are having children later in life. For the first time, women in their late thirties have even more children than those in their early twenties, as reported by the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, April 9th. A clear sign of a societal shift.

This decline is part of a long-standing trend. Since 2007, births have decreased almost every year.

Beyond the Atlantic, the overall fertility rate has fallen to 53.1 births per 1,000 women. A record low. Moreover, the average number of children per woman stands at 1.57, well below the replacement threshold for generations. Below the 2.1 fertility rate, the population does not “replace” itself, and demographic balance weakens. Without immigration, this could ultimately lead to a decline.

This change is largely explained by the drop in births among younger age groups. The decline among 15 to 19-year-olds has been dramatic. Since 2007, the rate has dropped by 72%. “We have spent decades discouraging early pregnancies,” noted researcher Karen Benjamin Guzzo. Public health campaigns and access to contraception have clearly been effective since the 1980s.

While public policies have borne fruit, they have also indirectly shifted motherhood to later ages. Many women do not give up on having children, but choose to wait longer. Reasons for this delay are diverse: finances, relationship stability, political uncertainties. “People wait to be ready in their lives before becoming parents,” explained demographer Wendy Manning from Bowling Green State University.

In the longer term, the consequences could be significant. Births still outnumber deaths, but the gap is narrowing. Within a decade, this dynamic could reverse. In that case, the growth of the American population would almost entirely depend on immigration. “There is a lot of uncertainty, and that may not necessarily be good for society,” cautioned Wendy Manning. A central challenge for the years to come.