Migration policy: United States against the current of the G7

Breaking with the G7 migration strategy, the Trump administration simultaneously targets all entry channels into the territory. This global hardening, affecting both asylum and skilled immigration, marks a turning point, noted by Hippolyte d’Albis, Emmanuelle Auriol, and Lionel Ragot.

Since the September 11, 2001 attacks, most G7 countries have adopted a dual migration strategy. On one hand, they tighten asylum policies and the fight against irregular immigration. On the other hand, they expand avenues for economic immigration targeting the most skilled workers and those able to fill jobs in high-demand sectors.

Several countries have implemented measures to facilitate this economic immigration: Canada (Express Entry, 2015), France (Talent Passport, 2016), Germany (Skilled Immigration Act, 2019), Japan (Specified Skilled Worker, 2019), and the United Kingdom (Points Based System, 2021). In 2023, in Hiroshima, G7 Foreign Ministers reaffirmed this logic, advocating for “safe, orderly, and regular migration.”

A radical shift in American policy As highlighted in a note from the Circle of Economists, drafted during the French presidency of the G7, the Trump administration diverges from this trend. It targets all migration channels at the same time, not only toughening the fight against irregular immigration but also erasing the border dividing irregularity enforcement and preserving channels deemed useful to the economy.

Challenging all migration channels Since January 2025, presidential decrees have targeted the border, asylum, birthright citizenship, refugee resettlement, and various humanitarian protections. At the same time, the administration expands deportation priorities, now targeting all individuals without status, not just those deemed dangerous profiles.

Vigorous migration shock already measurable The United States’ migration balance was halved in one year, dropping from 2.7 million to 1.3 million people between July 2024 and July 2025. It could decrease to around 321,000 by July 1, 2026. The macroeconomic cost is already evident. Academic studies suggest that such a decline in flows would deduct several tenths of a point from US growth over two years.

However, the most serious economic risk emerges in the medium term. Immigration fuels American growth through at least four essential channels. Firstly, the labor supply: foreign-born individuals make up nearly a fifth of the workforce. Additionally, innovation: in the US, temporary visa holders earn the majority of computer science and engineering doctorates. Immigrants also disproportionately contribute to patents. An increase of one percentage point in the share of highly educated immigrants in the population is associated with a 9 to 18% increase in patents per capita. Immigration also supports international trade. Diasporas reduce informational frictions between markets. Finally, a portion of the immigrant workforce strengthens the US economy’s adjustment capacity to shocks. Counterintuitively, it also promotes the participation of educated women in the labor market.

By simultaneously drying up these channels, the Trump administration weakens not just a simple flow of migration but a structural advantage of the American economy. This comes at a time when competition among advanced economies to attract talent is intensifying.