The geopolitical situation has evolved significantly this week, and although we are still far from a global return to peace in the Middle East, international stock markets are trying to stabilize and maintain above the low point established at the end of March.
This low point of international stock indices marked one month after the start of military operations on Saturday, February 28th. Is this the low point of the sell-off? This question deserves a reasoned answer both fundamentally and technically.
In this new article, I propose to focus on technical analysis, that is, determining the technical levels at which strategic financial assets need to reach to truly believe in a market bottom.
I have selected the following strategic assets: oil, natural gas, urea fertilizer, the US 2-year bond yield (which best anticipates the Federal Reserve’s monetary action to come), the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 stock indices, the US Technology sector index, and the US dollar (DXY).
The principle is that these strategic assets must return to a minimum level to begin to believe in a definitive end to the sell-off related to events in the Middle East.
In detail, the energy market serves as the first barometer. A sustained price decline in oil, with WTI falling below $94 and ideally close to $80, would signal a significant reduction in geopolitical risk premium.
The same reasoning applies to Brent as well as European natural gas, where a return below critical levels would indicate a progressive normalization of flows and expectations.
Also, critical fertilizers like urea play an advanced role in the global economic chain. Price stabilization would indicate that tensions on production costs are beginning to ease, a prerequisite for overall inflation easing.
From a bond perspective, the US 2-year rate must stop diverging from the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate as this would indicate an anticipated rate hike, which is incompatible with a low point in stock indices.
Regarding stock indices, the key technical signal remains the recapture of the 200-day moving averages. A sustainable breakthrough of these levels on the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones would indicate a return of long-term buyer flows and an improvement in market structure.
Finally, the US dollar must lose its relative strength. A DXY below its resistance zone would signal a relaxation of global financial conditions, favorable to risky assets.
It is only the convergence of all these signals that will validate, with a high degree of confidence, that the market’s low point has indeed been reached.
The table below reveals the synthesis of the minimum and ideal technical thresholds to achieve a strong conviction that the stock market sell-off related to geopolitics is truly over.
[Context: This article provides analysis and insights into the current state of international stock markets and key financial assets in the context of geopolitical events, offering technical analysis to evaluate a potential market bottom.]
[Fact Check: The content includes a disclaimer stating that it is for informational purposes, and readers are advised to consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. It also clarifies that the opinions expressed do not constitute investment advice.]
/2026/04/09/69d773a41e961859153572.jpg "Against the backdrop of war in the Middle East, Donald Trump threatens press freedom in the name of national security")
