Donald Trump had promised to destroy an entire civilization, but the President of the United States has finally agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. More in-depth negotiations must now take place in Pakistan, which is playing a role of mediator in the conflict. The issue of Iranian nuclear should then occupy a central place in the negotiations to make the ceasefire permanent.
Donald Trump “caught in a trap”
“Donald Trump had set himself a trap. He did it because he was caught between two facts, military pressure was not working and the other part of the trap is public opinion,” analyzes General Vincent Desportes, former director of the war school. Very unpopular in American public opinion, the war started on February 28 by Israel and the United States would have cost, according to the Financial Times, between 22 and 31 billion dollars to the United States. Five weeks after the operation, the United States failed to provoke the collapse of the regime or seize Iran’s stock of enriched uranium. “It is a defeat for the United States, let’s be clear! He cracked in the showdown,” comments Vincent Desportes.
In Lebanon, “we are in an infinite process”
Despite the announcement of the ceasefire with Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly made it known that the war against Hezbollah was not affected by the truce. In southern Lebanon, Tsahal is therefore expected to continue its occupation. “We are in an infinite process,” laments Vincent Desportes, who notes that it is possible to “harm Hezbollah, but not destroy it.” He is pessimistic about the possibility of a quick appeasement in Lebanon. “Who can act on Netanyahu? We are entering a totally deregulated world where force prevails over the law,” warns the general.
“As long as the regime holds, the Israelis will consider themselves threatened”
In these circumstances, the ceasefire remains fragile even though General Desportes considers “we have come out of the big” as far as the commitment of the United States is concerned. A situation that reveals a likely divergence between the United States and Israel. “For them, this war is not over. As long as the regime holds, the Israelis will consider themselves threatened and will probably continue,” advances Vincent Desportes, who also believes that the American inability to make Iran yield should dissuade the United States from resuming hostilities. “Iran remains a problem. This war was fought believing that force produced a political outcome. But force itself must be transformed into a result through strategy,” points out General Vincent Desportes, former director of the war school.
While the United States have “lost face,” General Vincent Desportes believes that Europeans must now assert their autonomy in defense matters. He also attributes the release of the two French hostages, Jacques Paris and Cécile Kohler, to the distance between Paris and Washington regarding Iran. “I think maybe Iran wanted to tell us that it had understood our position well and was not putting us in the same basket as the United States,” estimates Vincent Desportes.
