The geopolitics in the Middle East acts as a common catalyst. Oil reflects the direct risk, European markets are anticipating the economic impact, and Bitcoin reacts as an asset sensitive to market sentiment.
Trump has warned that he would attack power plants and Iranian bridges if his conditions are not met before 8 p.m. (Eastern Time) this Tuesday, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI oil rises amid escalating conflict risk
The May WTI futures contract is trading close to its highest levels since 2022 for one clear reason: the risk of supply disruption, surpassing $115 per barrel.
Attention is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global oil transportation. The possibility of attacks on energy infrastructure introduces an immediate risk premium in prices.
Tensions between the United States and Iran increase the likelihood of logistical disruptions and retaliations against energy assets.
Iran is demanding structural conditions for an agreement, reducing the probability of a quick resolution.
The market is not pricing in a total conflict, but a scenario of prolonged risk. This explains rapid increases without explosive movements.
In the event of an agreement, part of the premium would quickly disappear, but the probabilities remain low.
