The rise of the Turkish defense industry is a topic that cannot be ignored, placing Ankara at the center of an ambiguous relationship with the European Union. With technological opportunities, risks of sensitive transfers, and political divergences in play, Europe must choose between strategic partnerships and the need to preserve its autonomy. The return of high-intensity wars, growth in the arms market, and geopolitical threats have led Europe to seek non-aligned allies with significant military capabilities. Turkey stands out as a potential source, being a major economic ally with sometimes diverging and constraining priorities.
A Growing Turkish Defense Industry
Two dynamics shape the EU-Turkey relationship. The first, of a politico-military nature, highlights Ankara’s recent power surge through its domestic defense industry and its growing economic and military presence in Africa and internationally. By offering less expensive alternatives like its Bayraktar TB2 drone or Cobra tanks, Ankara has a stronghold on the African continent and is expected to see significant growth in the coming years. With a defense budget exceeding 30 billion euros, a position among the world’s leading arms exporters, and a national market estimated at over 21 billion dollars, potentially reaching close to 60 billion by 2035, Turkey now stands as a significant regional military-industrial power. However, this rise is accompanied by a progressive deterioration in its relations with Western allies.
The Strategic Importance of Turkey
The second axis concerns security issues and geographical specificities. Turkey controls the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits, giving it a central position for Black Sea access from the Mediterranean, especially for military vessels. Beyond the strictly military aspect, this position also gives Turkey a key role in Europe’s energy security. The Black Sea serves as a transit space for several energy infrastructures, including gas pipelines connecting Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia to Europe. Turkey’s control of these supply routes through the straits provides a significant leverage.
Ankara has also demonstrated its ability to leverage its geographical position, particularly by exerting migratory pressure on the EU. The 2015 migration crisis saw over a million migrants and refugees crossing into the European Union through the Aegean Sea and the Balkans to escape the Syrian civil war. This crisis has imposed unprecedented pressure on European asylum systems and highlighted internal political divisions in managing the influx. In this context, the EU-Turkey agreement in March 2016 marked a turning point in institutionalizing migrant flows as a diplomatic pressure tool towards the EU.
Origins of the Success of the Turkish Defense Industry
A strong desire for defense independence, motivated by various historical reasons, explains the rise of the Turkish defense industry. Ankara’s military intervention during the 1963-1964 Cyprus crisis led to an American embargo between 1975 and 1978, exposing its external dependencies and reinforcing the need for strategic autonomy. Later, as defense budgets decreased in many countries post-Cold War, Turkey maintained or even increased its budget due to prolonged struggles against the PKK and perceived insufficient NATO support during the Gulf War in 1991.
This trajectory continues today in a political vision characterized as Erdogan’s “Ottoman dream.” This aims to establish Ankara’s long-term regional influence through autonomous power instruments, with the Turkish defense industry being a central pillar of this strategy. Military capabilities do not only serve security imperatives but also a strategy for projecting power in a space historically linked to Ottoman influence.
Main Contracts between the EU and Turkey
The strengthening of political and security relations between Turkey and the European Union has resulted in a series of export contracts, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships. Ankara has established itself as a competitive supplier in the European market with its Bayraktar TB2 drone, acquired by Poland and widely used by Ukraine for offensive purposes, the sale of tanks like the Cobra II to Romania, as well as naval technologies, exemplified by support vessels contracted by Portugal. This commercial advantage lies in the absence of political or ethical conditions, unlike Western control regimes such as the US ITAR. This provides Turkey with a significant advantage in conducting defense diplomacy through advanced technologies free from government regulations.
Alongside, Turkey is strengthening its industrial presence in Europe through targeted acquisitions. A significant example is Baykar’s acquisition of Italian aircraft manufacturer Piaggio Aerospace, granting Ankara access to industrial chains, European certification expertise, and specific technologies in advanced aeronautics. These partnerships signify a convergence of technological interests but also pose a risk to the EU, potentially empowering a partner with diverging strategic orientations.
Possible Risks
The main risk is Ankara’s access to critical European technologies and industrial know-how. In the aeronautical domain, this includes advanced propulsion technologies like low-signature infrared turbofan engines. In sensor technology, potential transfers involve primarily Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radars and infrared optronic systems. In electronic warfare, risks include jamming systems, command and control architectures, and secure tactical data links. These transfers could accelerate the emergence of a direct competitor in export markets, reduce the European technological advantage, and facilitate the unintentional diffusion of technologies.
Another risk involves Ankara’s strategic opportunistic turn towards alternative partners. Over the past three decades, Turkey has shown its ability to secure arms contracts, security presence, and political influence, notably in the Sahel region. By intensifying arms sales in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, Turkey has become the leading drone supplier in Africa and has solidified its security foothold on the continent, contributing to the erosion of European credibility with competitive and less politically constrained equipment.
Possible Solutions
The EU has several options to better manage its industrial and security relations with Turkey. Strengthening and harmonizing export control regulations, particularly restricting Turkish access to critical technologies like AESA radars, could be one approach. Existing legal instruments like the Common Position 2008/944/PES…
