Trump threatens to withdraw from NATO alliance
Statements made this week by President Donald Trump in a British newspaper have reignited speculation about whether he is considering withdrawing the United States from the NATO defense pact, of which Canada is a member.
Expressing his frustration with what he calls the allies’ inability to help the United States in their war against Iran, Mr. Trump told the Daily Telegraph that NATO was a “paper tiger.” According to him, the withdrawal of the United States from the alliance “goes beyond the examination phase.”
Aaron Ettinger, associate professor of political science at Carleton University, said that the threat of a U.S. withdrawal from NATO had serious implications for Western security and should be taken seriously.
“We cannot simply view Mr. Trump’s threats as a Taco Tuesday situation,” explained Mr. Ettinger, referring to the acronym “Trump Always Chickens Out,” which describes the president’s tendency to make aggressive threats before giving in or doing nothing.
“The NATO depends on the United States, which makes the threat of abandonment, whether legal or material, a very real possibility,” he added.
According to NATO’s latest annual report published last week, the United States accounted for 60% of the combined nominal defense spending of the allies.
While it is still unclear to what extent the president is serious about a withdrawal, experts say there are several ways for Donald Trump to withdraw the United States from the alliance or undermine it from within.
Withdrawing from NATO would be straightforward but not without obstacles, in part because of Mr. Trump’s own Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
How Trump could attempt to leave the alliance
Mr. Ettinger, an expert in American foreign policy, pointed out that it was also possible for Trump to withdraw. The procedure is clearly defined in the NATO Charter: any member can leave the alliance by giving a one-year notice.
But Mr. Trump would still have to face U.S. legislators, courts, and the Constitution.
“The president is bound by U.S. domestic law, which has stated for several years that he cannot withdraw from NATO without prior consultation with Congress and obtaining the support of two-thirds of the U.S. Senate,” explained Mr. Ettinger.
“This would be a real battle that would likely end up in the Supreme Court,” he said.
This 2023 law limiting the president’s ability to leave NATO was introduced by Mr. Rubio, who was then a senator from Florida.
In a message posted on social media in December 2023 and viral this week, Mr. Rubio wrote that “no American president should be able to withdraw from NATO without Senate approval.”
According to Mr. Ettinger, this law means that any attempt to leave NATO would likely lead to a legal challenge in the Supreme Court and years of litigation.
He added that constitutional law would favor Mr. Rubio’s law, as it was supported by Congress.
At the same time, the U.S. Supreme Court is dominated by conservative judges who frequently side with Mr. Trump.
Withdrawal is not the only option
Wendy Gilmour, from the Conference of Defence Associations think tank, recalled that the president had proven to be very disruptive and could cause serious headaches for the alliance without formally withdrawing from the treaty.
“It is necessary to resort to decrees, even when they are not legally sound at first glance,” she said, noting that Trump could reduce or eliminate U.S. support for various NATO activities.
“It is in the interest of the alliance and the United States to take the time to reflect on where our interests lie and to find a way to address the global strategic instability caused by the U.S. and Israel’s decision to attack Iran,” she added.
Roland Paris, a professor of international relations at the University of Ottawa, suggested that Trump could deprive NATO of funding and other contributions to the point that it would have almost the same effect as a withdrawal.
“He could effectively withdraw the United States from NATO, even if it wasn’t a formal decision, by reducing U.S. military participation within NATO, including by removing the Supreme Allied Commander, which traditionally has been an American position,” said Paris.
“There would be strong opposition in Congress. He has the power to unilaterally reduce U.S. participation in the alliance. We’re not there yet, but I don’t believe he’s incapable of doing it,” he added.
Ottawa supports NATO
Asked about the existence of a contingency plan in case Mr. Trump withdrew from NATO, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand only emphasized Canada’s deep commitment to the alliance.
“We are constantly and consistently ensuring that our decisions on collective defense are made within the framework of this multilateral organization,” said Ms. Anand to The Canadian Press, highlighting that Canada had just fulfilled a NATO financial commitment to dedicate 2% of GDP to defense.
“We act unequivocally and consistently within NATO,” she asserted.
Donald Trump was not the only senior U.S. official to cast doubt on the alliance’s future this week.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth refused to reaffirm his support for the alliance at a press conference on Tuesday.
“An alliance is not worth much if some countries are not ready to support you when you need it,” said Hegseth, adding that Trump “is just emphasizing that.”
Speaking on Fox News this week, Mr. Rubio indicated that, “unfortunately,” the administration had to “reexamine” whether the alliance “still serves its purpose” or if it had become a “one-way street” where the U.S. had to defend Europe but member countries did not come to the aid of the United States.
Both cabinet members added that any decision would be up to the president.
Spain, Italy, and other NATO members have denied the U.S. military access to their air bases as the country wages war against Iran.
The Spanish Prime Minister called this war illegal and unjustified, while the Italian Parliament must approve the use of these air bases.
Legal experts have expressed concerns about violations of international law, citing the destruction of civilian infrastructure by U.S. airstrikes.
Mr. Trump also threatened to bomb civilian facilities, such as desalination plants that produce drinking water, which would constitute a war crime.
Although he raised the possibility of leaving NATO this week, Trump chose not to criticize the alliance on Wednesday during his primetime televised speech on the war, despite saying he would.
However, he urged his allies to use their armed forces to seize the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
