By promising a quick end to the conflict with Iran, Donald Trump is now shifting some of the responsibility onto European allies. The American president accuses France and the United Kingdom of not supporting Washington in the Strait of Hormuz. But will this strategy be enough to make people forget his own mistakes?
On the night of April 1st to 2nd, 2026, Donald Trump stated in a speech that the war against Iran could end “in two to three weeks,” claiming that military objectives were almost achieved. However, behind this announcement, there were few specifics: no clear roadmap, and sometimes contradictory messages between the desire to end quickly and the threat of new strikes. The political cost could be high: a majority of Americans oppose the conflict, and the president’s popularity is declining.
Furthermore, Iran is blocking the Strait of Hormuz in response to American strikes, disrupting global oil flows. “Go to the strait, seize it, protect it, use it,” declared Donald Trump on April 2nd, while also reproaching several NATO allies for not coming to the aid of the United States.
One question remains. Is this promise of a quick exit a strategy or a risky gamble a few months before the midterm elections? To discuss this, Romuald Sciora, a researcher associated with the IRIS and director of the Political and Geostrategic Observatory of the United States, is the guest of the new episode of the “Le Titre à la Une” podcast.
Who was Donald Trump targeting with his speech?
It’s important to keep in mind that Donald Trump has an obsession: his base of supporters, the “MAGA nation” (Make America Great Again), who followed him on January 6, 2021, during the assault on Congress and have forgiven him for all his excesses since then. He was primarily addressing this base, which is currently weakening. Trump had been elected on a very clear promise: he wouldn’t lead the country into long wars like in Iraq or Afghanistan, where American soldiers were killed. He seems to have broken that promise. There is a fragility within this base, which he will need in November for the midterm elections, but may also need in circumstances similar to those of January 6, 2021. His speech aimed to convince them of the righteousness of this “existential war” for the United States and the nuclear threat looming over the country. Beyond this base he sought to reassure, he addressed Republicans in general, much less the overall American population, and even less the rest of the world.
Does Trump’s MAGA base realize that the Iranian regime is still standing?
His base is absolutely not aware, but Donald Trump himself is also trying to convince himself. This is Donald Trump’s war. He trapped himself in Iran, embarking on this affair against the advice of his vice president J.D. Vance, Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, most Republican senators, and Pentagon generals. Trump wanted to arrive face to face with the American people on July 4 next year, for the 250th anniversary of the United States, with an agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue that could not have been better than the one in 2015, which he himself discarded. For this, he exerted immense pressure, deployed a fleet unprecedented since 2003, and was pushed by Benjamin Netanyahu to go further. Humiliated at home by the Supreme Court regarding his tax policy, Trump embarked on this war without a strategy. In his speech, he no longer talked about toppling the regime, but about more moderate leaders. The United States may not be losing the war, but they are not winning it either, and Donald Trump knows it very well.
