Global milk production is expected to exceed one billion tons this year and continue to grow throughout the decade. “But these volumes may not be sufficient to meet global demand, which could outpace production growth,” explains economist Jean-Marc Chaumet (Cniel) in a note from agricultural chambers published in late 2025.
Between 2025 and 2034, global consumption of dairy products is expected to rise by 21%, according to the OECD and FAO, making it one of the fastest-growing food categories. This increase is driven by population growth – the global population is expected to reach 8.8 billion by 2035 – rising incomes in emerging countries, and changes in dietary habits.
Fresh dairy products lead the way in growth (+21%), followed by butter (+18%) and cheese (+10%). This expansion will be largely driven by developing countries with a 35% increase, compared to only +0.5% in developing countries.
The main driver of this growth, Asia cannot meet its domestic demand alone, with its self-sufficiency rate in dairy products reaching only 92% in 2024 (86% for Africa), particularly highly dependent on imports from Southeast Asia (99% for the Philippines).
In the coming years, both Asia and Africa will continue to rely on imports to meet local demand for dairy products. Consumption is expected to outpace production in these regions as climatic conditions do not always favor dairy farming.
Context:
– Global dairy production is projected to face challenges in meeting the increasing demand due to various factors such as population growth and changing dietary habits.
Fact Check:
– The global dairy industry is expected to experience a supply-demand gap due to insufficient production in major exporting regions.
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