Bitcoin has outperformed since the onset of the war with Iran a month ago, but it is unlikely that the bear market is over. Discover Vincent Ganne’s analysis of the situation.
Bitcoin has outperformed for 1 month
What resilience! While most traders were not optimistic about Bitcoin’s fate with the start of military operations against Iran on February 28 and considered it the best asset to short to profit from risk aversion, it has performed much better than the stock market and precious metals in the market.
The relative performance of Bitcoin’s price compared to precious metals is remarkable; the latter have plummeted in the market with a performance of -22% for silver and -12% for gold since last February 28.
The chart below shows the performance of a selection of financial assets since the closing price on Friday, February 27, and Bitcoin’s price has been stable for 1 month.
But this resilience is not the end of the cyclical bear market
This resistance of Bitcoin’s price and altcoins in general leads some analysts to think that the cyclical bear market of BTC might have already ended with the drop to $60,000 on February 26.
Even though this idea is appealing, it is still unlikely at this stage. One thing is certain, the year 2026 will see the final low point of the cyclical bear market, but in terms of time or price, there is probably still one more drawdown missing to return massively to buying on BTC and altcoins.
If we continue to follow the teachings of the 4-year cycle, a final bottom established in February at $60,000 doesn’t match:
- It is more towards the second half of this year 2026 that the final low point is expected, precisely between the months of August and October 2026
- In terms of drawdown from the all-time high, $60,000 is slightly high to match a final bear market price, as evidenced by several technical and on-chain analysis approaches.
Here are four approaches that defend the $55,000 zone more for finding later in the year the end of the Bitcoin’s bear market that remains active as long as the market stays below the 200-day moving average.
- The Bitcoin CVDD, which is (by far) the most accurate on-chain indicator in Bitcoin’s history for finding the bottom of the cyclical bear market and currently stands at $48,000
- The Bitcoin Realized Price, the average price at which holders of BTC bought it, currently around $54,000
- The power law, a mathematical approach to Bitcoin’s price evolution, with the “quantile model” indicating a final low point zone around $55,000
- And finally, the average production cost per bitcoin highlighting the $50-60,000 zone for the final low point
Ultimately, it appears that it is more towards the second half of 2026 and the $50,000 price range that will see the end of the cyclical bear market.
Some content or links in this article may be advertisements. Cryptoast has studied the featured products or services but cannot be held responsible for any damage or loss related to their use. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risks. Only invest what you can afford to lose.
Vincent Ganne is a recognized expert in technical analysis with 18 years of experience. He frequently appears on BFM Business and provides exclusive analyses for Cryptoast Research. With his extensive experience, Vincent offers a comprehensive approach to financial markets, taking into account macroeconomic events and using various aspects of technical analysis to predict Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies’ trends in the medium and long term. He also served as Senior Market Analyst & Business Development Manager at TradingView for 3 years, enhancing his in-depth knowledge of financial markets.
Vincent Ganne
396 articles
