The number of non-farm jobs is expected to increase by 60,000 in March. Economists believe it will take time for the oil shock to impact the labor market. The unemployment rate should remain at 4.4%. By Lucia Mutikani.
Employment growth in the United States likely rebounded in March thanks to the end of a strike by healthcare workers and rising temperatures. However, risks of deterioration in the job market are rising due to the Middle East war. Economists expect the expected rebound to be a return to last year’s growth pace, close to the speed of decline. The labor market has been shaken by uncertainty, starting with President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs. While some clouds were beginning to clear, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned tariffs imposed by Trump under a national emergency law in February. However, Trump reacted by imposing global tariffs for up to 150 days. In late February, the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, causing global oil prices to rise by over 50% and domestic gasoline prices. Economists said the month-long war added a new layer of uncertainty for businesses, expecting the labor market to be affected this quarter.
“We saw last year that uncertainty leads businesses to hesitate in hiring,” said Sophia Kearney-Lederman, senior economist at FHN Financial. “Last year, the major uncertainty was around tariffs. This year, it’s what the conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices will mean.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ closely watched employment report is expected to show non-farm jobs increased by 60,000 last month, based on a Reuters survey of economists. The number of jobs declined by 92,000 in February, the second-largest drop since January 2025. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, but some economists think it could reach 4.5%. Good Friday is not a public holiday in the U.S., but some financial markets are closed.
Approximately 31,000 striking nurses at Kaiser Permanente in California and Hawaii returned to work at the end of February, which should boost payroll in the healthcare sector in March. The healthcare sector has been a key driver of employment growth, and economists expect it to remain so due to demographic changes.
A rebound in employment is also expected in the construction sector, as well as in leisure and hospitality, following declines attributed to winter weather. Last month, job growth likely remained limited in some sectors, including social assistance. BLS data this week showed job openings saw their largest drop in over a year and a half in February, indicating a decrease in labor demand.
“Everything is moving at a snail’s pace; there is a lot of uncertainty, and we continue to lay off people,” said Ron Hetrick, senior employment economist at Lightcast.
Context: The article discusses the expected rebound in employment in the United States in March and the potential impact of the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices on the labor market.
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