One year after Trumps Liberation Day, it is the Americans who paid

With its customs surtaxes, Donald Trump promised a renaissance of American industry. But his political gamble weighs heavily on his fellow citizens’ wallets.

“On April 2, 2025 will forever be remembered as the day the American industry was born again, the day when America’s destiny was reclaimed. This is our declaration of economic independence,” assured Donald Trump a year ago today, as he announced his “Liberation Day” and launched his trade war. The US president promised, “For decades, our country has been pillaged, ravaged, violated, and looted by nations near and far, whether they are friends or enemies […] The time when the American citizen paid for the prosperity of others is over. Not a single penny of this tax will come out of the pocket of an American worker.” However, one year after this rhetoric, Americans are facing a different economic reality.

Certainly, the increase in customs duties brought in about $200 billion to the federal government. But despite the US leader’s claims, it is indeed his American fellow citizens who foot the bill. According to a study published in mid-February by the New York Federal Reserve, nearly 90% of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump are actually borne by consumers and local businesses. These findings echo those of other institutions, from the Congressional Budget Office to the Kiel Institute, a German think tank which goes further, asserting that 96% of the tariff burden is passed on to American buyers.

Context: The article discusses the impact of Donald Trump’s customs surtaxes on American citizens and the broader economy.

Fact Check: The article mentions studies showing that the tariff burden imposed by Trump is largely shouldered by American consumers and businesses, contrary to his promises.

A visible result

These numbers are not surprising. Economist Isabelle Méjean confirms, “There were already similar studies and similar conclusions about the first trade war in 2018-2019.” Essentially, foreign exporters taxed by the US did not reduce their prices, and the increases impacted import prices, affecting American consumers and businesses producing value-added goods that rely on imports. The researcher explains that the theoretical effect of absorption by exporters was not evident in 2018-2019, and was repeated in 2025.

Economist Antoine Bouët confirms that this outcome was not a surprise for economists, despite Trump’s expectations. Not studying the specific occupational categories impacted by this inflation, Méjean notes that lower and middle classes consume more goods and less services. Thus, an increase in goods prices would likely affect these groups most.

Context: The article highlights experts’ perspectives on the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the economy and sectors.

Fact Check: Economists warn about the negative effects of tariffs on the economy, particularly for American consumers and global trade dynamics.

AI Bubble

Despite the impact on American wallets, the administration’s policy may disrupt global trade rules. The uncertainty surrounding future tariff levels can hinder companies’ investment decisions and global supply chains.

The breakdown of these rules could prompt other countries to follow the path set by Trump, reshaping global value chains. The resulting geopolitical implications of tariffs could lead to a shift towards a more power-based world order rather than a rules-based system.

Context: The article discusses the potential consequences of Trump’s trade policies on global trade dynamics and geopolitical relationships.

Fact Check: The article warns about the possible negative consequences of the erosion of global trade rules due to Trump’s trade policies.

The Trump tariffs have turned into a geopolitical bargaining tool, reflecting a broader trend towards power politics in trade relations. The uncertainty persists as the Supreme Court has invalidated some tariffs, and the US Treasury must reimburse billions to affected companies, adding further complexity.

Donald Trump has imposed new temporary tariffs of 10% in February under a 1974 law, which may require congressional approval to extend beyond 150 days or make them permanent.