The remarks made by the American president have dampened hopes for a quick easing of the war against Iran.
Oil prices continued their rebound on Thursday, with the American reference climbing over 10%, after a more offensive speech by Donald Trump than expected, dampening hopes for a quick easing of the war against Iran. The American president promised on Wednesday to strike “extremely hard” at Iran for another two to three weeks, threatening in particular its energy infrastructure, even though he also said he was “close to fulfilling” American strategic objectives.
“The president’s assertion that countries dependent on the Strait of Hormuz must act to ensure its opening supported the rise in Brent’s risk premium”, “suggesting new military operations in the coming days”, said Claudio Galimberti, an analyst at Rystad Energy in Texas. After pulling back since the beginning of the week in anticipation of a lull, the price of a barrel of North Sea Brent for delivery in June rose by 7.76% to $109.01 around 12:35 GMT (14:35 Paris time).
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Threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Its American equivalent, the West Texas Intermediate barrel for May delivery, soared by 10.66% to $110.79. If the United States were to seize the Kharg oil terminal or launch a ground invasion in Iran, “the price of oil could reach $200”, feared Tamas Varga of PVM, as reported by AFP. Meanwhile, “the Strait of Hormuz is still de facto closed”, which “reduces the oil supply on the market”, noted Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics. “The release of strategic reserves and the reduction of stocks will be less effective as their levels decrease”, if this strategic passage, through which approximately a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, “remains closed”, he added.
According to the American Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday, the US strategic reserve lost about 300,000 barrels during the seven-day period ending on March 27. The energy crisis could be further exacerbated by the entry into war by the Houthi rebels of Yemen, allies of Iran, who could obstruct traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most heavily traveled maritime corridors. Petroleum products are also feeling the impact of the blockade of Hormuz. The price of European diesel exceeded $200 per barrel on Thursday, a price not seen since 2022 and the repercussions of the war in Ukraine.
