Never two without three. After the first Gulf War, triggered by the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in 1990, and then the second (2003-2011), initiated by an American offensive in Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein, the Persian Gulf is at the center of a new major conflict since February 28th.
As the outcome appears more uncertain than ever, this third Gulf War has plunged the entire Middle East into chaos. From Saudi Arabia to the United Arab Emirates, including Israel and recently Ukraine, some balances could be transformed permanently.
A look at current geopolitical issues.
1. Trust in the United States tainted Following Iranian attacks on their territory, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf petromonarchies blame Washington for choosing to protect Israel at the expense of its regional allies.
“The Gulf countries don’t really have an army, except maybe the Saudis. So they were relying on the Americans to defend them. Today, these countries feel that their alliance with the United States did not protect them,” says Francois LaRochelle, former diplomat and fellow at the Institute of International Studies in Montreal.
The fact that the Americans went to war without their approval also fuels their crisis of confidence. The contradictory media statements from Donald Trump, both on the reasons for the war and the steps towards a resolution, do nothing to help the situation.
Mr. LaRochelle also believes that we are witnessing a geopolitical realignment in the region that has not been seen for a long time – perhaps even since the first Gulf War.
2. A double consensus in the region Gulf countries are in a delicate position, as they are in favor of firmness towards Tehran but also fear the effects of a war on their economies and security.
“At the regional level, there is generally a consensus on two points,” explains Sami Aoun, director of the Observatory on the Middle East and North Africa at UQAM. “The first is that the Gulf countries do not want Iran to be a dominant hyperpower claiming domination over the four Arab capitals of Damascus, Beirut, Baghdad, and Sanaa.”
“But at the same time, these countries do not want Israel to be a major power in the region,” he warns.
The New York Times recently revealed that Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, is one of those pushing Donald Trump to go all the way and provoke a regime change in Tehran alongside the Israelis.
In the event of a regime collapse of the ayatollahs, Riyadh could become the pivot of a new regional order dominated by Pakistan to the east and Turkey to the west. This is evidenced by the meeting of these three countries on Sunday in Islamabad, along with Egypt, to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
3. Difficult to do without the United States Although the Gulf countries are somewhat discouraged by the unreliability of their American ally, they remain dependent on US weapons and protection. Finding an alternative solution is therefore difficult.
According to Dorothée Schmid, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), these countries are currently at an impasse, especially since they risk being left in the lurch by the United States, who may weaken Iran without necessarily changing the regime in Tehran. “In the medium term, their perspective is to have to continue coexisting with the Iranian regime, whose evolution is uncertain,” she says.
Economically, Ms. Schmid believes that the Gulf countries may be tempted to postpone certain investments, especially in the United States. They may also look more towards India or China to strengthen their strategy of multialignment.
From the perspective of former diplomat François LaRochelle, there is a geographical analogy with Canada. “Iran will always be there for these countries, just as the United States will always be there for Canada. I think that plays on the minds of the Gulf leaders.”
4. Israel unavoidable nonetheless Theoretically, for the Jewish state, the war in the Middle East could mean greater isolation in the region. But in practice, the current conflict has not yet had any consequences on the Abraham Accords signed in 2020 between Israel and several Arab countries to normalize their diplomatic relations.
“We have not seen any cancellations from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, or Morocco,” notes Sami Aoun, from the Observatory on the Middle East and North Africa at UQAM.
Even though Israel is displaying expansionist intentions in Lebanon, Syria (and towards the Red Sea with its recognition of Somaliland), few voices in the Middle East are currently rising against Benjamin Netanyahu. François LaRochelle also points out that Israeli investments play a significant role in the economy of the United Arab Emirates.
Israel would like to go further by normalizing its relations with other Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia. “But there is always the Palestinian question acting as a barrier,” summarizes François LaRochelle.
5. The impossible dream of an “Arab NATO” “Even if the Gulf countries hold joint meetings to call for de-escalation, it is very difficult to imagine them coming together in an effective security system,” says Dorothée Schmid of IFRI.
Among the main reasons are the historical rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. There is also their lack of military experience and their different perception of the Iranian threat.
Thus, according to Ms. Schmid, Saudi Arabia, due to its geography, and Oman, thanks to a form of political skill, are currently the winners of the current crisis.
“The Omanis have not spent their time condemning the United States since the beginning of the crisis. At the same time, they offered their condolences after Khamenei’s death, congratulated the new supreme leader, and did not take any distancing position from Iran,” she explains. “We also see that Saudi Arabia is suffering much less than the United Arab Emirates or even Qatar because it can export some of its oil through a pipeline it built to the Red Sea.”
6. Ukraine as a surprise guest Ukraine wants to leverage its expertise in drone destruction and is seeking allies in the Gulf. Kiev signed a defense cooperation agreement with Qatar on Saturday. Another one is announced with the United Arab Emirates.
“We see that the Gulf states are particularly receptive to this little help that the Ukrainians could give them, possibly in exchange for armaments that the Americans do not want to give them in the face of Russia,” says Dorothée Schmid of IFRI.
Behind these agreements could hide ideas of exchange: weapons for expertise and technology. This lack of military experience in the Gulf countries is also, according to Ms. Schmid, the main argument for further European engagement.
