On the 30th day of the conflict in the Middle East, speculations are currently rife about the potential deployment of American troops in Iranian territory. In this context, Iran accuses the United States of secretly preparing a ground offensive.
It’s been a lingering question since the start of the conflict in Iran: will the American military eventually set foot in Iran? The hypothesis has gained traction in recent days, as Donald Trump said on Sunday, March 29th that the Kharg rule, a crucial oil site for Tehran, could be “easily” taken by the United States.
Beyond the statements by the American president, the US contingent has significantly reinforced in the region in recent weeks. This weekend, the American amphibious assault ship Tripoli arrived in the Middle East with “some 3,500” sailors and Marines on board. Another group of Marines is currently en route and will be on site within the next few days.
According to Axios and the Wall Street Journal, the American administration is also considering sending an additional 10,000 troops to reinforce the forces in the region, to deliver “the final blow” to this war.
“The United States is ramping up the pressure. They are sending reinforcements to increase their capabilities, as things are not going as planned,” analyzes General Jérôme Pellistrandi, defense consultant for BFMTV. “The American command is providing additional options while waiting to see the development, especially in the discussions,” he adds.
Instead of a massive invasion of Iran, which would be costly financially, humanely, and politically for Donald Trump, the United States would prefer targeted raids. These would be carried out in the coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz by members of the special forces and other soldiers, as reported by the Washington Post. They would aim to locate and destroy weapons capable of targeting commercial and military navigation, including sensitive points like Abu Musa and the Tounbs rule, where Iran has advanced positions equipped with missiles and drones.
The proposed objectives should be achieved in “weeks, not months,” according to a source cited by an American newspaper. These would be “very complex operations,” warns General Jérôme Pellistrandi. “A special forces operation must be brutal, rapid, and effective. Precise intelligence is crucial,” explains the BFMTV defense consultant.
The Pentagon has also reportedly presented Donald Trump with an option to penetrate deep into Iranian territory to recover approximately 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, which Tehran allegedly keeps in underground nuclear facilities.
For now, Donald Trump has not given his consent to such an intervention, which would be risky and dangerous for American forces, considering that 13 soldiers have died since the conflict began.
The United States would have to transport troops under enemy fire, secure their presence while conducting search and evacuation operations for the nuclear material, which would take several days.
According to experts cited by the Washington Post, this raid would also require the deployment of excavation equipment and containers to transport the highly enriched uranium. “It could fill several trucks,” explains Richard Nephew, a senior researcher at Columbia University and former nuclear negotiator with Iran, as quoted by the American media.
Lastly, it would be necessary to consider creating an improvised airstrip to transport the material and evacuate the nuclear fuel. “This is not a quick operation,” warns retired General Joseph Votel, former commander of the United States Central Command and United States Special Operations Command.
Despite the military deployment, Washington continues to show diplomatic openness. While Donald Trump has expressed his willingness to negotiate an end to the conflict, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt warned on Tuesday that if the Tehran regime does not renounce its nuclear ambitions and cease its threats against the United States and its allies, the president is “ready to unleash hell” against them.
On the Iranian side, these statements fuel distrust. The President of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the United States on Sunday, March 29th of preparing a ground offensive while publicly pursuing diplomatic efforts to end the war.
Such a ground operation poses “considerable risks,” according to Michael Eisenstadt, director of the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, speaking in the Washington Post. He believes it would be wiser for American forces to mine the strait and use it as a means of pressure to compel Iran to demine the Strait of Hormuz.
